Cameroon is currently preparing for one of its most significant external financing operations since the January 2026 Eurobond. According to the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement (CAA)’s monthly public debt report for June 2026, the State intends to raise 690 million dollars, approximately 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-component loan targeting international investors. This crucial operation, however, unfolds against a political backdrop that could significantly influence market perception, notably marked by the extended absence of President Paul Biya – a factor international investors traditionally incorporate into their sovereign risk assessments.
The Head of State has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. An investigation published on July 30 by The Guardian indicated that this marked his longest absence since assuming power in 1982. The British daily reported that this situation “reignites speculation in Cameroon regarding whether Paul Biya is alive or deceased.”
Cameroonian authorities continue to vehemently deny these rumors. As quoted by The Guardian, Communication Minister René Emmanuel Sadi asserted that “the President is in good health and working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information claiming otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation aimed at destabilizing public opinion.”
Despite these official statements, questions persist. Several opposition figures, also cited by The Guardian, are demanding greater transparency regarding the President’s situation or are raising concerns about an institutional vacuum. For international investors, these ongoing debates primarily fuel the assessment of political risk, a criterion examined alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies closely monitor political risk
Analyses released by credit rating agencies demonstrate that this issue is not a recent development. In its report dated November 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings explicitly stated that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” At that time, the agency maintained a B rating with a negative outlook.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions ahead of elections,” persistent fragility in fiscal governance, and ongoing shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, judging that “political destabilization risks linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining its Caa rating, while cautioning that “a chaotic transition could lead to delays in debt payments.”
Standard & Poor’s also highlighted this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025 analysis. The agency recalled that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to run for an eighth term in the October 2025 presidential election,” adding that the concentration of power and the lack of a historical precedent for presidential transition maintained a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 prompted Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency noted that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has diminished, though not disappeared, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the position of vice-president. However, the occupant of this role is yet to be known, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have already demonstrated their sensitivity to such signals. In early October 2024, a rumor circulating about Paul Biya’s death triggered a decline in Cameroon’s dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Bloomberg reported at the time that these securities had experienced a third consecutive session of decline “due to uncertainty surrounding President Biya’s health.”
The American media outlet notably quoted Thys Louw, a portfolio manager at Ninety One UK Ltd, who remarked that “President Biya has concentrated a lot of power around him, and a succession crisis could provoke significant market volatility.” Sam Singh-Jami, Africa strategist at Rand Merchant Bank, for his part, believed that “political uncertainty could challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and meet its commitments to its international creditors.”
Assets to reassure investors
The political context, however, represents only one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the trajectory of public debt, the quality of the sovereign signature, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To enhance the risk profile of this issuance and boost its attractiveness, Cameroon is collaborating with several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital, serving as financial advisor, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI), a multilateral institution specializing in trade and investment risk coverage, and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to reinforce the issuance’s credibility among investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Robust economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch forecasts an average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 40.2% by 2027, and highlights Cameroon’s successful mobilization of 750 million dollars on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed Eurobond.
The agency nonetheless underscores that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including developments in governance, public finance management, the clearance of arrears, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the political context. Just months before this new international issuance, Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus introduces an additional element likely to influence Cameroon’s sovereign risk perception. While not, by itself, undermining the country’s capacity to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the conditions under which investors agree to finance this operation.
