A significant economic shift is on the horizon for Cameroon. The Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefaction unit that has been stationed off the coast of Kribi since 2018, is set to exit national waters in July 2026. This departure marks the conclusion of the contract between its owner, Golar, and Cameroon’s Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH). In its economic review for the first quarter of 2026, the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) identifies this event as a primary factor contributing to an anticipated economic slowdown, alongside geopolitical tensions and underperformance in several key export sectors.
Detailed projections from the CNEF indicate that Cameroon’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by approximately 3.2% in 2026, a decrease from 3.5% in the preceding year, followed by a further dip to 3.1% in 2027. An alternative, slightly more optimistic scenario within the same document suggests growth rates of 3.3% and 3.2%. Under both assumptions, the underlying rationale remains consistent: the extractive sector is poised to drag down overall economic growth, contributing a negative 0.4 percentage points to GDP in both years. Specifically, the petroleum GDP, which encompasses all hydrocarbon-related activities, is projected to decline sharply by 16.1% in 2026 and an even steeper 18% in 2027.
LNG sector already facing decline before vessel’s exit
The impending departure of the Hilli Episeyo comes at a time when the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is already showing signs of vulnerability. Revenues generated from LNG exports reached 350.2 billion FCFA in 2025, a notable drop from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022. This represents an 8.1% year-on-year contraction. This trend continued into the beginning of the year, with Cameroon’s total exports falling by 23.6% to 606.9 billion FCFA in the first quarter of 2026. Within this, LNG exports specifically decreased by 28.4%, and crude oil exports by 14.4%.
Despite these challenges, LNG still accounted for a significant 11.4% of Cameroon’s export revenues in 2025. The withdrawal of this critical floating vessel thus deprives Yaoundé of a foundational asset precisely when other economic sectors are also struggling. Over the same period, sales of cocoa and its derivatives plummeted by 37.7%, timber sales by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and raw rubber by 16.7%. The cumulative impact of these widespread sectoral declines is expected to amplify the forthcoming shock from the gas sector.
Current account under pressure, delicate budgetary choices ahead
Cameroon’s macroeconomic stability is expected to absorb a significant blow. The CNEF forecasts a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, widening further to 6.1% in 2027, compared to an estimated 3.2% in 2025. The national budget deficit is projected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching 1.7% and then 2.1% of GDP. These projections also factor in a global trade slowdown, increasing freight costs, and only moderate growth in public revenues.
Furthermore, rising global oil prices present a classic dilemma for the executive branch. Maintaining stable fuel prices at the pump would necessitate increasing fuel subsidies, incurring an immediate budgetary cost. Conversely, adjusting retail prices upward would reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF refrains from making a definitive recommendation, it underscores the extremely narrow margin for maneuver available to policymakers.
Yoyo-Yolanda and new blocks: no immediate remedies
SNH is actively pursuing a strategy to diversify its upstream portfolio in preparation for the post-Hilli Episeyo era. A key initiative is the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda field, shared with Equatorial Guinea, which boasts estimated geological resources of approximately 2,500 billion cubic feet and requires an investment nearing $4 billion. However, the project’s timeline remains contingent on the finalization of technical and commercial agreements, securing necessary financing, and the construction of dedicated infrastructure.
Concurrently, the state-owned company is progressing with the allocation of new exploration blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. Nevertheless, entering into production sharing contract negotiations does not guarantee the discovery of commercially viable reserves or rapid production commencement. The central risk, therefore, lies in the duration of this transition period: the longer the gap between the floating vessel’s departure and the activation of new production capacities, the more entrenched the extractive sector’s negative contribution to Cameroon’s economic growth will become. Industry analysts indicate that none of the currently announced initiatives are capable of short-term compensation for the projected decline in LNG exports.
