eastern Congo conflict: expert highlights rdc-Rwanda peace deadlock and us strategy gaps

The peace process aiming to resolve tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo (RDC) and Rwanda has reached a critical «impasse», according to Jason K. Stearns, an associate professor at Simon Fraser University. Speaking recently during an online discussion, Stearns highlighted that neither the Doha-Montreux nor the Washington-led initiatives have yielded any concrete outcomes over the past year.

Examining the Montreux Negotiations

Stearns noted a distinct lack of progress since the Montreux talks, where he believes significant disagreements persist between the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 rebel group.

Regarding the agreement brokered between Kinshasa and Kigali under Washington’s auspices, he acknowledged the signing of «numerous agreements» but emphasized that «implementation remains a significant challenge». Stearns drew a parallel with American diplomacy in other areas, such as Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration, while «heavily invested in diplomacy», risks settling for «grand declarations and MOUs»—framework agreements—«without substantial progress on execution». For him, the core issue lies in «moving beyond these framework agreements to achieve genuine compromise», a compromise he perceives as «still undefined».

The Elusive Compromise

Stearns reiterated that the fundamental compromise sought between Kinshasa and Kigali remains consistent with those outlined in all prior agreements, including the comprehensive and inclusive accord of 2003. This involves the withdrawal of Rwandan forces in exchange for a Congolese commitment to combat the FDLR. He underscored that this «same deal» has seen very limited progress in its execution.

Regarding the M23, he observed a complete lack of common ground. The Congolese side «continues to favor a military solution», while the rebel movement asserts its intention to remain active «for another ten years». The researcher’s grim conclusion is that «we are very, very far from achieving success».

Underlying Causes of the Stalemate

When questioned about the reasons for this deadlock, Jason Stearns first acknowledged a unique contribution from the Trump administration compared to previous mediations (such as those by the East African Community or the African Union through Angolan efforts): the application of genuine pressure, which he felt was absent in prior attempts. He assessed that «sanctions against Rwanda are more aggressive than ever before», even surpassing those imposed since the major Congolese wars began in 1996.

However, he pinpointed two critical shortcomings. Firstly, a noticeable lack of coherence within the international community: Washington imposes sanctions on Rwanda without the involvement of European partners, who are among Kigali’s primary financial backers. Stearns highlighted this disconnect by noting that Rwandan President Paul Kagame continues to ink agreements, including with American basketball teams, suggesting that he is not, in fact, under intense international pressure.

Secondly, the absence of a clear overall strategy. American diplomats, as quoted by Jason Stearns, indicate that Washington does not envision a military solution, a stance Stearns concurs with. Nevertheless, the underlying compromise strategy meant to accompany the pressure exerted on Kigali remains, in his view, ill-defined.

Montreux Compromise Proposal Rejected

The researcher further disclosed that American diplomats reportedly put forward a «vague» compromise proposal in Montreux between the M23 and the RDC, which was never publicly revealed. This proposal, based on Stearns’ understanding of the situation—though he did not have direct access to the agreement’s text—would have offered the rebel movement a form of «partial integration». Both parties, however, rejected this proposition.

Ultimately, Jason Stearns concluded that the most significant missing element today is equivalent diplomatic pressure on Kinshasa. He asserts that, unlike Rwanda, the RDC has «not truly experienced diplomatic pressure from the United States» thus far.