Standard & Poor’s recent decision to maintain Chad’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-’ with a stable outlook serves as a strong endorsement of the government’s ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ national development strategy. According to the Ministry of Finance, Budget, Economy, Planning and International Cooperation, this move reflects the agency’s confidence in the country’s economic momentum, driven by solid growth, controlled debt levels, and consistent support from international partners.
Growth outlook revised upward: from 3.6% to 5.2%
Chad’s economy has shown remarkable resilience, with real GDP growth accelerating since 2023, fueled by rising hydrocarbon prices and a rebound in service sectors. Standard & Poor’s now projects 5% GDP growth for 2025, up significantly from its December 2024 forecast of 3.6% annually between 2024 and 2027.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also upgraded Chad’s growth prospects, now anticipating 5.2% growth for the current year. This upward revision stems from improved agricultural output and a rebound in non-oil sectors, even as oil remains a critical driver of exports and public revenues. Meanwhile, agriculture and services are bolstering domestic demand, creating a more balanced economic foundation.
Debt levels under control
Chad has made substantial progress in public debt management, emerging from a period of heightened vulnerabilities. Public debt now stands at around 36% of GDP, a moderate level compared to regional peers. In 2022, Chad became the first country globally to utilize the G20’s Common Framework for debt treatment, significantly improving its debt sustainability.
The country’s external debt now accounts for just half of its total obligations, with most obligations structured on concessionary terms—favorable repayment conditions that enhance investor appeal. This has enabled Chad to secure greater financial flexibility, fund major infrastructure projects within the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ plan, and attract private investment while maintaining budgetary discipline.
Boosting domestic revenue collection
Another key achievement is the significant improvement in domestic revenue mobilization, a cornerstone of Chad’s ongoing economic reforms. The tax-to-GDP ratio rose from 9.8% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023—a notable increase reflecting efforts to expand the tax base and enhance revenue administration, according to OECD data.
This positive trend continued into 2025, with non-oil revenues exceeding projections thanks to strong non-hydrocarbon activity and measures implemented under the IMF program approved in July 2025 (totaling $625.3 million). Digitalization of public finances and stronger governance frameworks are further enhancing collection efficiency.
The Ministry of Finance notes that S&P’s rating confirmation strengthens Chad’s financial credibility, making it more attractive to private investors and reinforcing confidence among international partners in the government’s reform agenda.
Unlocking economic potential through ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’
While S&P’s decision underscores Chad’s economic progress, key challenges remain—particularly in diversifying the economy, strengthening tax collection, and sustaining debt sustainability. Addressing these priorities is central to the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ national development plan, launched in May 2025 following the country’s political transition.
The transition culminated in May 2024 with the election of President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, following the adoption of a new Constitution and a national reconciliation dialogue initiated after the passing of former President Idriss Déby Itno in April 2021.
Under the plan, Chad secured $20.5 billion in financing from public and private partners at the November 2025 Abu Dhabi conference. Through 268 cross-cutting projects, the strategy aims to transform the economy by lifting 2.6 million people out of poverty—targeting 8% annual GDP growth from 2025 to 2030 and expanding the national economy by 60% by 2030.
The plan is structured around four strategic pillars:
- Accelerating development of critical infrastructure: electricity, water supply, roads, and telecommunications.
- Strengthening social policies in education, health, vocational training, youth employment, and social inclusion.
- Economic diversification through export-oriented sectors including agriculture, livestock, fisheries, hydrocarbons, mining, and tourism, with a focus on local processing.
- Improving the business environment by simplifying administrative procedures.
