Morocco faces the highest exposure among north african economies to a potential oil price surge triggered by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new collective study.
The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) has released a volume titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: the Price of a Distant War,” which examines the geopolitical, economic and security consequences of the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.
The work brings together contributions from international experts including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh and Rida Lyammouri. It explores how the crisis affects different regions, with a particular focus on Morocco, Africa and countries of the Global South.
The authors argue that the Hormuz crisis goes beyond a regional confrontation. It exposes the fragilities of a globalised economy heavily reliant on energy, trade and logistics flows that pass through this narrow maritime chokepoint. A significant portion of the world’s oil, gas, fertiliser and commercial goods transits via this route.
One chapter, written by economist Hinh T. Dinh, analyses the impact of a 20% increase in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.
Using an input-output economic model, the study concludes that Morocco is the most exposed country among those studied to an oil shock originating from the Hormuz crisis. The analysis identifies vulnerabilities in several sectors, including agriculture, construction, transport and other energy-dependent activities.
In contrast, Egypt would partially benefit from higher oil prices thanks to its state petroleum revenues, while Tunisia would show a broadly balanced outcome despite significant disparities between sectors.
A turning point for the international order
Beyond the economic dimensions, several contributors view the 2026 war as a watershed in the evolution of the global order.
Ferid Belhaj argues that the conflict illustrates the growing fragmentation of the world system and the weakening of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas sees the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.
Ian Lesser, in another contribution, analyses the war’s repercussions on transatlantic relations. He finds that it has widened differences between the United States and several European countries over the use of force and the management of international crises.
The volume also highlights risks to African energy security, the Sahel’s stability and South American economies, while pointing to the growing role of strategic minerals in new global geopolitical dynamics.
According to the PCNS, this collective work aims to contribute to the debate on shifts in the international order and the strategies states must adopt in the face of crises that could permanently disrupt supply chains, energy markets and global geopolitical balances.
