The High Planning Commission has unveiled its latest demographic projections for Morocco, spanning 2024 to 2060. The forecasts, based on varying fertility, mortality, and migration trends, reveal a nation on the cusp of significant demographic transformation.
Population growth slows to a near halt
Under the median scenario, Morocco’s population is expected to rise from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million by 2060, marking a modest 17.8% increase over 36 years. This translates to an average annual addition of 182,000 inhabitants, a stark contrast to the rapid growth of previous decades. The population growth rate, currently at 0.7%, is projected to decline steadily, approaching zero by 2060, signaling a phase of near-stagnation.
Urban expansion reshapes the landscape
The urban population is set to surge, reaching nearly 32.5 million by 2060—approximately three-quarters of the total population. Conversely, rural areas will see a decline to about 10.8 million residents. The High Planning Commission warns that this urban shift will intensify challenges tied to housing, infrastructure, and social services, urging proactive public policies to address territorial imbalances. Concurrently, efforts to bolster rural development are emphasized to improve living conditions, retain young populations, and harness local resources, preserving the country’s social and territorial equilibrium.
Declining youth demographics reshape education
A sharp drop in fertility rates is projected to shrink the number of young children. Preschoolers aged 4-5 will decline by 23.8%, from 1.25 million in 2024 to 0.96 million in 2060. Primary school-aged children (6-11 years) will decrease by 27%, from 4.16 million to 3.04 million. The first cycle of secondary education (12-14 years) will see a 22.9% reduction, while the 15-17 age group will shrink by 11.4%.
This demographic contraction presents an opportunity for educational reform. With fewer new students to accommodate, resources previously dedicated to expanding school infrastructure can be reallocated to enhance teaching quality, pedagogical support, and curriculum development. The pressure to build new classrooms will ease, allowing for greater investment in educational performance and outcomes.
Working-age population rises unevenly
The working-age population (15-59 years) is projected to grow from 22.08 million in 2024 to 24.96 million in 2060, a 13.1% increase. However, this growth is unevenly distributed. In urban areas, driven by rural-to-urban migration, the working-age population will swell by 34.4%, from 14.2 million to 19.1 million. Conversely, rural regions will experience a 25.4% decline, from 7.9 million to 5.9 million. The Commission cautions that this urban concentration will place significant strain on local labor markets, particularly in accommodating an influx of workers from rural areas.
Among the 18-24 age group—the primary source of new entrants to the workforce—the overall national decline is projected at 3.1%, from 3.89 million to 3.77 million. Yet, urban areas will see a 11.3% increase in this demographic, while rural regions will face a 28.3% drop. The 50-59 age group will surge by 44.9% nationally, with urban areas recording a 76.6% rise compared to a 17.4% decline in rural zones.
Aging population transforms national priorities
The population aged 60 and above is set to triple, rising from 5 million in 2024 to 10.9 million in 2060, representing 25.2% of the total population compared to 13.6% today. This segment is growing at an average annual rate of 2.2%, a trend particularly pronounced in urban areas, where their numbers will multiply 2.5 times—from 3.18 million to 8.06 million. In rural zones, the increase is more modest, with a 1.6-fold rise from 1.81 million to 2.83 million.
The 70+ age group will see an even more dramatic surge, tripling from 2.06 million to 6.3 million by 2060. Urban areas will experience a 256% increase in this demographic (from 1.25 million to 4.44 million), while rural regions will see a more gradual rise from 0.81 million to 1.86 million.
The Commission attributes this aging trend to the fertility decline that began in 1975, alongside reduced mortality rates and, to a lesser extent, migration patterns. As the generation born after 1975 enters retirement age from 2035 onward, the pace of population aging will accelerate significantly.
Policy reforms essential to navigate demographic shifts
The Commission stresses that the rapid aging of Morocco’s population will elevate the dependency ratio—the proportion of dependents to working-age individuals. This shift will pose critical challenges in pension financing, healthcare provision for an older population, and maintaining intergenerational solidarity, especially as traditional rural-urban support networks weaken. The institution underscores that demographic aging is an irreversible structural trend, necessitating immediate policy adjustments in education, employment, territorial planning, and social protection to align with a future where population growth slows but aging accelerates.
