Chad economic outlook 2026: 5.3% growth forecast by cnef

The National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) of Chad convened its second ordinary session of 2026 in N’Djamena on July 21, under the leadership of Minister of State Tahir Hamid Nguilin, who also serves as the Committee’s chair.

 

Attending the meeting were Guibolo Fanga Mathieu, Minister of Trade and Industry, Saleh Bourma Ali, Deputy Minister overseeing the Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation, Yvon Sana Bangui, Governor of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), and other standing Committee members.

The session focused on analyzing global, sub-regional, and domestic macroeconomic conditions, economic projections for 2026, and medium-term outlooks. Idriss Ahmed Idriss, Secretary-General of the Committee and National Director of the BEAC, presented the findings.

Global tensions weigh on economic stability

The final communiqué highlighted persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the rise of protectionist policies worldwide as key challenges affecting international economic stability.

Despite these pressures, Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) economies demonstrated resilience, with controlled inflation, improved budgetary and external balances, and strengthened foreign exchange reserves.

Chad’s GDP projected to grow by 5.3% in 2026

The CNEF forecasts real GDP growth of 5.3% for 2026, up from 5.1% in 2025. This expansion is expected to stem primarily from the non-oil sector, even as oil production is projected to decline.

The Committee also noted a continued easing of inflationary pressures, with the inflation rate expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026 from 2.6% in 2025, signaling a stronger macroeconomic framework.

Monetary and banking indicators show improvement

Members observed a notable increase in net foreign assets as of March 2026, alongside growth in the money supply and a comfortable level of import coverage by reserves.

The banking system and non-bank financial sector in Chad also posted encouraging results, with the aggregate bank balance sheet rising by 4.9% year-on-year by the end of March 2026.

Budget execution and financial inclusion discussed

On public finances, the CNEF reviewed the state budget execution as of June 2026. Discussions also covered the first-quarter 2026 effective interest rate report, findings from bank audits, and updates on the central bank’s initiative to expand deposit facilities nationwide.

Following the deliberations, the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to closely monitor economic and financial indicators to safeguard macroeconomic stability and bolster the country’s growth trajectory.