The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export campaign—with nearly one million tonnes already sold under contracts for the 2026-27 harvest—could face disruption due to the anticipated arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon in July, industry insiders and agricultural commodity traders warn. The Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has already taken measures to control stock levels by raising the premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the forward price, as confirmed by sector sources.
Market momentum meets climate uncertainty
The surge in demand has driven Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer, to sell between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming season. However, traders and exporters are exercising caution, slowing the pace of transactions to avoid oversupply risks. « We’ve already finalized contracts for nearly one million tonnes, but we’re deliberately pacing ourselves to avoid market volatility, » explained an insider familiar with the CCC’s strategy.
Trading firms project exports to reach 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, attributing the higher premiums set by the CCC to a tightening market. « The current market conditions allow the council to adopt a stronger negotiating position. They don’t need to lower premiums to secure deals, » stated a representative from a major cocoa trading firm.
El Niño’s potential impact on west african cocoa production
Despite the positive momentum, the looming El Niño threatens to disrupt cocoa output across West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The climate phenomenon is expected to bring prolonged droughts, which could severely affect flowering and pod development in cocoa trees, leading to reduced yields.
Meanwhile, exporters are also grappling with long-term challenges, including aging plantations and rising costs of fertilizers and phytosanitary products. « While El Niño is a concern, the real risk to production comes from the shortage of essential agricultural inputs and the poor maintenance of aging cocoa farms, » emphasized a leading cocoa exporter based in Abidjan.
