The vast Sahelian belt, extending geographically from Mali across to Chad, hardly presents itself as an emerging economic powerhouse. To put it plainly, it’s far from being a Singapore for foreign direct investment. Key economic indicators for nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal a landscape of significant challenges. In Mali, for instance, nearly half of its 25.9 million inhabitants are under 15, only a quarter of its land is arable, and it ranks 188th out of 193 countries on the UNDP’s Human Development Index. Approximately 45% of its population lives below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey face similar grim statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty according to the World Bank. All three are landlocked nations, currently governed by military leaders who have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This alliance, implicitly backed by the Kremlin, aims to dismantle remaining French strongholds in the region. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was purportedly meant to usher in prosperity for their citizens, a prosperity they claimed was withheld by Europeans. However, this has not materialized. Yet, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are now actively offering their services and influence.
Morocco: forging an Atlantic gateway
Through the ambitious Dakhla Atlantic Port construction, the Kingdom of Morocco is developing a strategic equivalent to its Tanger Med port, this time situated in the Western Sahara, designed as a major hub connecting with Europe. Scheduled for completion by 2028 and operational the following year, this infrastructure is envisioned as a crucial entry point for West African trade and a vital conduit to the Americas. Rabat recently hosted the three leaders of the AES, presenting a sharp geopolitical proposition: a deep-water port, potentially linked by a future railway (though not yet confirmed), offering these three landlocked nations direct access to the ocean, thereby alleviating their geographical isolation. The primary objective is to stimulate their economies. For Morocco, geographically constrained by its long-standing conflict with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes: it demonstrates that its development plan for the Western Sahara benefits the entire sub-region, and that economic growth can indirectly counter the jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by providing opportunities to a disillusioned youth. The Sahel faces a rapidly increasing birth rate, with its population projected to double within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-Saharan gas pipeline to Europe
Having previously experienced strained relations with Niger, Algiers mended ties in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, Niger’s military leader in Niamey. Algeria proposed initiating construction of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment, originating in Nigeria and now passing through Niger before reaching Algeria, immediately after Ramadan. This 4,800-kilometer pipeline is designed to supply natural gas to Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbon company, would oversee construction within Nigerien territory and provide training to Nigerien personnel for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building stands as a significant advantage compared to the approach often taken by China, which typically does not train local populations in the management of their national resources.
Two complementary, yet clashing, regional strategies
Discussions concerning Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara commenced in Madrid and Washington on February 23rd and 24th. Should this conflict, now in its fiftieth year, finally reach a resolution, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the explosive security and demographic challenges facing the Sahel. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between these two regional capitals.
Jihadism thrives amidst the combined scourges of pervasive poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently striving to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each nation leverages its distinct strengths: Algeria offers its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s technical expertise, while Rabat highlights its grand infrastructure projects and its aspiration to serve as a pivotal hub connecting Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, though inherently complementary, are unfortunately pitted against each other due to the unresolved Sahrawi conflict. A regrettable situation indeed.
*On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, publicly demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, denounced this as a “soldier’s diatribe.”
