The attack that occurred on Thursday, June 18, 2026, has sent shockwaves across West Africa. Just as negotiations to reopen the border between Bénin and Niger were reaching a critical juncture, this sudden outbreak of violence has severely disrupted diplomatic progress. Behind this act, numerous observers now see a possible economic influence war, with some even suspecting the involvement of Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé.
The assault is believed to have been orchestrated by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM). However, the speed and timing of this operation raise questions. Many regional analysts argue that the terrorist group acted as a contractor for third-party state interests.
The name of Faure Gnassingbé is circulating persistently in diplomatic corridors. The Togolese head of state is suspected of financing this precise attack with a single objective: to derail the imminent agreement between Cotonou and Niamey.
The battle of ports: the real motive
To understand the underlying dynamics of this affair, one must shift focus from security concerns to the economic map of the subregion.
At the core of the issue: since the border closure between Bénin and Niger, the Autonomous Port of Lomé (PAL) has become Niamey’s alternative economic lifeline. Togo has massively captured the flow of Nigerien goods, generating record profits.
A normalisation of relations between Cotonou and the Nigerien authorities would mean an immediate return of transit through the port of Cotonou, which is far closer and more natural for Niger. For Lomé, the resulting shortfall would amount to billions of CFA francs.
A halt to regional diplomacy
By striking on the very day when progress was being made, the attack’s instigators ensure that mistrust resurfaces between Bénin and Niger. If Lomé’s involvement is formally proven, it would mark a dramatic turning point in subregional relations, demonstrating that commercial warfare has now moved beyond legal boundaries and into bloody conflict.
