Mathematically, the Arsenal still have a slim chance of catching up at the top, but for that to happen, Mikel Arteta’s side would need to lose their final two fixtures against already-relegated Burnley and Crystal Palace, while Manchester City would also need to secure victories over Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
Though Pep Guardiola’s team may not seriously entertain such a scenario, the weight of recent form suggests why City remain heavy favorites. Despite suffering a defeat to the Eagles in last season’s FA Cup final, the reigning champions have gone unbeaten in their last eight Premier League meetings with Palace—a run stretching back to October 2021 (5 wins, 3 draws).
City have also been flawless at home so far this season, following a single loss to Tottenham in August (13 wins, 3 draws). Crucially, since that setback at the Etihad, the hosts have consistently found the net in every league game, making it clear that Palace cannot afford to take a passive approach from the first whistle.
The Citizens have been particularly dominant in the first half this term, scoring 38 goals before the break—the highest tally in the league—while conceding just nine. Another positive sign? They haven’t tasted defeat in any of their last 23 evening fixtures, though they have settled for five draws in eight games played after 19:00 this calendar year.
Haaland thrives against Palace, while Doku shines bright
Erling Haaland has developed a knack for tormenting Crystal Palace, netting in each of his five Premier League appearances against them in a City shirt. Only Mohamed Salah and Raheem Sterling share a similar feat in top-flight history, both achieving it against Bournemouth.
Jérémy Doku is another player to watch, enjoying a sensational run of form. His five goals and two assists in the last six matches match the combined impact of his previous 24 outings for the club (one goal, six assists).
The Eagles, meanwhile, will rely on their attacking options. Ismaila Sarr has found the net nine times in his last ten starts, and his 20-goal haul this season is the highest by a Palace player since Glenn Murray’s 22 in 2012/13.
Jean-Philippe Mateta could etch his name into the club’s record books if he finds the net. A goal would make him just the second player after Wilfried Zaha to reach 50 Premier League strikes for the South London side. Of his 49 career goals for the club, 32 have come at Selhurst Park, with only two of his 11 strikes this season arriving away from home.
Palace’s away struggles and City’s dominance
Crystal Palace have made a habit of troubling their hosts at the Etihad, scoring twice in each of their last four away trips there—yet they’ve managed just one point from those four matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their away form this season has been equally uninspiring, with only two draws on the road.
City boast the league’s most potent attack this season (72 goals), but their dominance extends beyond scoring. They lead in total passes (20,582) and pass completion rate (89%), rank second in total shots (549) and shots on target (193), and boast a conversion rate of 18%. Former Palace captain Marc Guehi has made the most passes for the Citizens this term (2,126).
On the flip side, Palace sit at the other end of the spectrum with a pass completion rate of just 78%—the worst in the league—and a conversion rate of 13%, the second-worst in the top flight.
Expect early goals as City target quick starts
The 15 minutes leading up to half-time have proven to be a goldmine for both teams: City have scored 20 goals in this period, while Palace have conceded 17. City have lost only once after taking the lead this season, underscoring the importance of an early breakthrough for the visitors if they hope to salvage at least a point.
Injury news sees Cheick Doucouré and Eddie Nketiah ruled out for Palace, while Evann Guessand and Borna Sosa face late fitness tests. City will be without Rodri and Josko Gvardiol, with Abdukodir Khusanov also awaiting a late medical clearance.
