The unfolding scenario in Niamey follows a pattern that is almost mechanical in its regularity, tragically predictable. Regimes come and go, leaders change faces, yet the fundamental method of power acquisition remains unsettlingly constant.
When heavy gunfire and explosions once again shattered the night in Niamey, echoing near the presidential palace and airbase, the populace held its breath, gripped by a painful sense of déjà vu. Whether these incidents stem from frustrated garrison mutinies or high-level rivalries within the military apparatus, they are not random occurrences. Instead, they serve as direct symptoms of the very architecture inherent in regimes born from coups d’état.
Since the ousting of civilian rule in July 2023, history offers a stark reminder: leaders who seize power through force often find themselves challenged or overthrown by the very same means.
This recurring fate is rooted in specific structural and political factors that consistently undermine military juntas:
The prolonged transition period creates fatigue
A transition period extending over years feels like an eternity for a populace initially asked to make a temporary sacrifice. As months turn into years, the initial public enthusiasm or tolerance gives way to legitimate exasperation. When an exceptional period stretches indefinitely, the absence of a clear democratic horizon transforms promises of national regeneration into a mere exercise in power preservation.
The reality of security challenges looms
At the core of the Niger coup’s justification was the pledge to « restore security and dignity ». However, governance by decree cannot erase the harsh realities on the ground. When, despite sovereignist rhetoric and shifts in geopolitical alliances, security promises fail to materialize and soldiers continue to fall on the front lines, the narrative loses its potency. Doubt begins to spread, first within the ranks of the troops, then permeating the streets.
Force as the sole rule of succession
By overturning a constitutional order, a military power like the CNSP inadvertently validates force as the only legitimate method for resolving political disputes. Consequently, General Tiani’s demonstration that a rifle can secure the presidential seat unintentionally teaches the same lesson to colonels, captains, or rival factions within the armed forces. The military ceases to function as a monolithic shield, transforming instead into a chessboard of internal rivalries. Official reports suggest the situation on August 28 was a mutiny within the armed forces.
From Seyni Kountché to Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara, and through Salou Djibo, Niger’s political annals consistently demonstrate that power obtained through bayonets inherently carries the seeds of its own contestation.
The recent gunfire beneath the windows of power merely echoes this enduring political law. Until legitimacy is firmly anchored in a republican and civilian pact, power in Niamey will remain vulnerable to the slightest spark originating from the barracks. This is because a weapon holds no eternal allegiance: the very one that installs a man in power today remains precisely the same one that threatens to unseat him tomorrow.
