Australia and Paraguay, sitting second and third in group D respectively, meet in the early hours of Friday in San Francisco. A draw could be enough for both to reach the round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup.

What will be the final chapter for group D? Heading into the third and final matchday on Thursday night into Friday, two things are certain: the United States, with two wins from two, have already secured top spot and a place in the knockout stage. Turkey, their opponent in Los Angeles, are eliminated. So that fixture carries no competitive weight for either side.

Attack or run down the clock?

However, plenty of goals and drama are far from guaranteed in the other group D clash between Paraguay and Australia. The match, played simultaneously at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara near San Francisco, carries real significance: second place. But here’s the twist – both teams are level on three points. Australia occupy second spot thanks to a superior goal difference (0 compared to Paraguay’s -2). If they share the spoils, both would almost certainly advance, because in this expanded 48-team format, four points should be enough to finish among the eight best third-placed sides. Paraguay would then be virtually sure of a place in the last 16.

Will these two sides push for second place and go all out for victory, or will they settle for a draw that suits both? Anything is possible, but World Cup history has already served up dull third group matches where opponents simply passed the ball around and let the clock run. In any case, the Australians and Paraguayans will have a clearer picture after the final standings of the two groups that play before them (E and F). If results go their way, you might not want to stay up until 4 am for this one.