Two years after the establishment of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES), Captain Ibrahim Traoré and other leaders portray the alliance as a strategic and political triumph grounded in sovereignty, solidarity, and mutual cooperation among Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. While this narrative resonates with a segment of public opinion, it has yet to convince those demanding tangible progress.
The AES leadership emphasizes significant advancements in diplomatic, military, and institutional domains. However, the very challenges that prompted the formation of this alliance persist on the ground, casting doubt on the organization’s effectiveness.
Sovereignty as a political cornerstone
For the authorities of the AES, sovereignty has become the defining element of their political agenda. Yet true sovereignty extends beyond severing ties with long-standing partners or pursuing new international alliances. It is fundamentally measured by a state’s ability to safeguard its citizens, uphold institutional functionality, protect its economy, and provide opportunities for its youth.
Despite repeated claims of military success, armed groups continue to operate in multiple regions across the three nations. Civilians remain under constant threat of violence, while mass displacements and humanitarian crises persist as daily realities. These conditions underscore the urgent need for action rather than symbolic gestures.
Economic integration remains a distant promise
The envisioned benefits of regional economic integration have yet to materialize in any meaningful way. Trade flows between member states remain constrained, fiscal constraints continue to hinder progress, and declining purchasing power affects households across the region. For many analysts, the projected advantages of the AES remain largely aspirational rather than practical.
Citizens evaluate their leaders not by the boldness of their declarations but by the tangible improvements in their living conditions. Security, healthcare, education, employment, and infrastructure development are the true benchmarks of effective governance.
The overlooked dimensions of governance
The dominant focus on political sovereignty often overshadows critical issues such as transparency, accountability, and institutional strength. A regional union cannot secure lasting public trust without robust governance frameworks, efficient public policies, and responsible resource management. The success of the AES will hinge on its ability to address these foundational elements.
Undoubtedly, the AES represents a pivotal shift in the political landscape of West Africa. Yet its legacy will not be defined by speeches or declarations alone. The true measure of its success lies in its capacity to deliver measurable improvements in security, economic stability, and social welfare for the people of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It is only through concrete results—not intentions—that the Confederation’s achievements will be judged.
