Europe’s growing stake in the escalating Sahel crisis

The military administration in Mali, which receives support from Moscow, is currently struggling for its existence. This follows a synchronized offensive by jihadist and Tuareg forces that resulted in the death of the defense minister and compelled Russian contract fighters to withdraw from the northern regions. Such escalating instability sparks concerns about a potential surge in migration towards Europe and the rapid deterioration of security throughout the broader Sahel region.

Recent weekend assaults vividly highlighted the profound fragility of the governing junta, whose longevity remains uncertain. However, the ramifications of a destabilized Mali, further exacerbated by the broader repercussions of the conflict in Iran, are not expected to be contained within its national boundaries. Instead, they risk intensifying an already worsening security situation across this highly volatile global region.

A genuine threat exists for insecurity to proliferate across the permeable borders of West Africa, potentially impacting even robust democracies like Senegal and Ghana. The severe hardship inflicted by insurgent groups operating in vast, ungoverned territories will inevitably compel populations to seek refuge elsewhere.

This unfolding situation is not isolated. Fuel price increases stemming from the Iran war are set to exacerbate Mali’s economic challenges, rendering daily life intolerable for numerous citizens as the landlocked nation’s government struggles to finance essential imports. Consequently, a significant number of people will likely opt to migrate internationally. European nations must prepare for an increased influx of migrants from the Sahel, particularly as the Middle Eastern conflict simultaneously steers the eurozone towards a perilous combination of stagnant growth and elevated inflation.

It is crucial to recognize that the Sahel, despite its geographical distance, is far from disconnected. Millions of Malians and Burkinabe currently find employment in Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. In the months ahead, even more individuals are expected to resettle in these former French colonies, seeking escape from dire conditions in their homelands, thereby intensifying competition for available jobs. Data from Frontex, the European border agency, indicates that Malians already constitute one of the top three nationalities reaching Spain’s Canary Islands, a critical hub for African migrants journeying towards Europe.

For over ten years, Mali has been embroiled in a continuous crisis, contending with a persistent jihadist insurgency, climate change devastating agricultural lands, and the near breakdown of governmental structures after coups in 2020 and 2021. The prolonged instability of recent times, coupled with the ineffective performance of Russian forces deployed after Mali dismissed French and European Union troops, paints a pessimistic picture for the immediate future.

The withdrawal of Russian personnel from significant portions of northern Mali is poised to allow jihadist factions to establish training facilities within these expansive, empty territories. This development could facilitate their further territorial growth, a prospect that deeply concerns Algeria.

Should a power void emerge in the northern regions, it would create favorable conditions for illicit actors such as arms dealers, drug traffickers, and human smugglers. These groups routinely traverse Mali and its neighbor Niger en route to Libya and Mauritania, utilizing these primary pathways from sub-Saharan Africa towards Europe.

The insurgent movement has expanded into neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, with jihadist elements now encroaching upon Gulf of Guinea nations like Benin and Togo. These coastal countries possess far stronger links to global commerce compared to the landlocked Sahel. Operating with considerable freedom, crossing national boundaries, and exerting control over extensive rural areas in Mali and Burkina Faso, these insurgents now feel confident enough to set their sights on capital cities.

Presently, jihadist forces lack the capacity to seize Bamako. While the survival of Mali’s military administration in the face of these assaults remains uncertain, its authority across the nation is effectively confined to the capital city. Therefore, governments across West Africa and those situated thousands of miles distant in Europe ought to give this situation their serious consideration.