At a time when many emerging economies struggle to regain their pre-pandemic growth momentum, Morocco stands out as a notable exception. Since 2022, non-agricultural activities have expanded by an average of 4.4%, approximately 1.3 percentage points above its historical average. This robust performance has allowed the nation to steadily recover the ground lost during the health crisis.

This is the primary finding of a Policy Paper released in early July 2026 by the Policy Center for the New South, authored by Abdelaziz Ait Ali, Mahmoud Arbouch, Fahd Azaroual, Karim El Aynaoui, and Adnane Lahzaoui. Beyond the immediate economic assessment, the study delves into a fundamental question: Is Morocco embarking on a sustained new economic trajectory, or is it merely benefiting from an unusually favorable international environment?

+ Massive public investment fuels growth + 

A key insight from the report highlights investment as the cornerstone of Morocco’s economic resurgence.

With an investment rate approaching 30% of its GDP, the Kingdom ranks among the most investment-intensive economies in its category. The authors primarily attribute this dynamic to substantial investments from the state, public institutions, and public enterprises, channeled into major infrastructure, transport, energy projects, and preparations for the 2030 World Cup.

While this policy has undoubtedly accelerated economic recovery, it also exposes a structural limitation. A significant portion of the necessary equipment is imported, meaning that some benefits from these investments accrue more to foreign suppliers than to the domestic productive sector. The consequence is a persistent trade deficit that continues to constrain overall growth, even amidst strong performances from export-oriented sectors.

+ Tourism and services lead the charge +

One of the study’s most compelling observations pertains to the very composition of growth.

Contrary to popular belief, Morocco’s economy is not exclusively driven by the automotive or manufacturing industries.

The tertiary sector has emerged as the principal engine of recovery. Tourism, now nearing 20 million visitors, alongside transport, logistics, financial services, and engineering activities, now accounts for the lion’s share of value creation.

The construction sector also shows renewed vigor, buoyed by extensive infrastructure projects, while agriculture remains the primary source of economic volatility, continually impacted by recurrent droughts.

+ Morocco benefits from a new global economic geography + 

The authors contend that the Kingdom is currently reaping the rewards of a profound transformation in the global economy.

Sino-American tensions, supply chain disruptions since Covid-19, and evolving industrial diversification strategies are compelling major international corporations to seek production platforms closer to European and African markets.

In this evolving landscape, Morocco significantly enhances its attractiveness.

The study highlights Chinese investments in the electric battery sector, specifically Gotion High-Tech’s projects in Kénitra and CNGR’s initiatives in Jorf Lasfar, as prime examples of this new industrial dynamism.

More broadly, the authors believe that the Kingdom is progressively establishing itself as a “connector state,” adept at linking value chains between Europe, Africa, and Asia, underpinned by its political stability, robust logistical infrastructure, and strategic trade agreements.

+ Economic credibility reassures investors + 

The report further emphasizes that this attractiveness is built upon solid macroeconomic fundamentals.

Financial stability, a steady improvement in public finances, comfortable foreign exchange reserves, and a reduction in sovereign risk collectively bolster confidence among foreign investors.

Furthermore, remittances from Moroccans residing abroad continue to support domestic consumption, while an improvement in terms of trade has helped mitigate the inflationary impacts of external shocks.

+ The real challenge begins now + 

However, the study adopts a more cautious tone when discussing medium-term prospects.

According to its authors, the current model cannot sustainably rely on ever-increasing public investment.

They identify three significant limitations: mounting public debt, a gradual decline in investment returns, and the persistent difficulties faced by the private sector in stepping up.

The document specifically reveals that more capital is now required to generate the same point of growth compared to the early 2000s, indicating diminishing investment efficiency.

For the researchers, the primary weakness remains the private sector’s capacity to invest, innovate, and enhance productivity.

Access to financing remains a challenge for many SMEs, competition from the informal sector continues to undermine their competitiveness, and public investments absorb a growing share of available banking resources, thereby limiting credit accessible to businesses.

This situation impedes the emergence of growth driven more by innovation, productivity gains, and private investment.

+ A new vision for economic transformation + 

Finally, the report puts forth an idea worthy of consideration: For a long time, the development of emerging countries primarily hinged on industrialization.

The authors now suggest that certain exportable services—including tourism, information technology, digital services, and consulting activities—can also become engines of economic transformation, provided they are deeply integrated into international value chains and generate skilled employment.

+ Morocco at its pivotal moment + 

Ultimately, this Policy Paper delivers a nuanced message. Indeed, Morocco currently benefits from a favorable international climate, characterized by geopolitical fragmentation and the reorganization of global production chains. And yes, its stability, infrastructure, and strategic position between Europe and Africa bolster its appeal.

However, these advantages alone do not constitute a comprehensive development strategy.

For the authors, the true challenge now lies in transforming this window of opportunity into sustainable growth through profound reforms across the labor market, education system, innovation ecosystem, and business environment.

In essence, Morocco possesses an unprecedented strategic advantage today. The question is no longer merely whether it can attract more investment, but rather whether it can convert its position as a “connector” in the global economy into a genuine catalyst for lasting prosperity.